Report by IFPRI on climate change and food systems – India’s food production could drop by 16% and the number of those at risk for hunger could increase by 23% by 2030 due to climate change.
Evaluates the impact of climate change on:
- aggregate food production,
- food consumption (kilocalories per person per day),
- net trade of major food commodity groups.
- population at risk of going hungry.
IMPACT:
- Simulates national and international agricultural markets.
- Developed with inputs from scientists from the Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centres (CGIAR) and other leading global economic modeling efforts.
India at risk
- Indians at risk from hunger in 2030 – 73.9 million .
- Due to climate change impact may increase to 90.6 million.
- The aggregate food production index – drop from 1.6 to 1.5.
- Climate change will not impact the average calorie consumption of Indians.
- 2,600 kcal / capita / day by 2030 even in a climate change scenario.
Global scenario:
- Global food production to grow by about 60% over 2010 levels by 2050.
- Production and demand to grow more rapidly in developing countries due to growth in population and incomes.
- Meat production to double in South Asia and West and Central Africa by 2030 and triple by 2050.
- Per capita consumption levels in developing countries – less than half of those in developed countries.
- Regional differences in access to food – nearly 500 million people are projected to remain at risk of going hungry.
- Globally, about 70 million more people will be at risk from hunger because of climate change.
- More than 28 million in East and Southern Africa.
